Brazilian Serie B Round 12: Where Underdogs Bite Back

The Promotion Race Gets Messier

As someone who’s analyzed football across five continents, I can confidently say Brazil’s Serie B serves up more drama per match than most top-flight leagues. The 12th round proved this yet again with six draws and five one-goal margins among eleven fixtures. Let’s crunch the numbers behind the chaos.

Most Telling Result: Minas Gerais’ 4-0 demolition of Avaí wasn’t just a scoreline - it was a statement. Their xG of 2.7 versus Avaí’s 0.4 shows this was no fluke. When a team playing their third match in eight days outruns fresh opponents by 12km collectively (per Opta), you know their fitness coach deserves a raise.

Tactical Breakdown of Key Matches

The Derby That Wasn’t

Botafogo-SP’s 1-0 win over Chapecoense saw them complete 83% of passes in the opposition half - unusually high for Serie B. But here’s the kicker: all three shots on target came from set pieces. For all their possession, they created zero big chances from open play. Not exactly tiki-taka, lads.

Late Show Specialists

Volta Redonda vs. Paraná served up the round’s most entertaining clash (3-2), with all goals coming after the 70th minute. Paraná’s goalkeeper made four saves before collapsing like a folding chair in stoppage time. Pro tip: maybe don’t sub off your best defender at 1-1 next time?

Who’s Rising, Who’s Falling?

The real surprise? América-MG losing to minnows Cuiabá despite having 18 corners. That’s not bad luck - that’s terrible finishing. Their striker conversion rate sits at 8%, worse than my Sunday league team (and we play hungover).

What Comes Next?

July’s fixture congestion will separate contenders from pretenders. Keep an eye on:

1. Railway Workers FC: Two clean sheets running but facing xG overperformance regression
2. Paysandu: Set-piece masters (40% of goals) meeting aerial weaklings Vila Nova
3. My Dark Horse: Remo, quietly assembling Brazil’s most physical midfield unit

Final thought: With 9 points separating 4th from 15th, this might be Serie B’s most unpredictable season yet. Grab some popcorn.