Suns Stand Firm: No Discount for KD’s Preferred Destinations Unless Bids Improve

The Suns’ Hardball Calculus

Let’s cut through the noise: Phoenix isn’t running a charity for Kevin Durant’s wishlist teams. According to reports, the Suns have made it clear—Miami, Houston, and San Antonio must “pony up or shut up” (to borrow a phrase from my Chicago tavern days). GM James Jones knows his leverage: KD’s 4-year contract and a market where even “desperate” looks undervalued.

Why the Stalemate?

• Miami’s Dilemma: Herro + Jovic + picks? That’s barely a down payment for a top-15 all-time scorer. Pat Riley’s famed aggressiveness is hamstrung by limited tradeable salary (apologies, Duncan Robinson).
• Houston’s Wildcard Status: Jabari Smith Jr. and Amen Thompson are intriguing, but does swapping future flexibility for a 35-year-old align with Ime Udoka’s timeline?
• San Antonio’s Darkhorse Bid: Wemby + KD sounds fun until you realize Gregg Popovich values locker room chemistry like a sommelier values Bordeaux vintages.

Data Dive: Trade Machine Realities

My model gives a 42% probability of Durant staying put unless:

1. Miami includes Jaime Jaquez Jr.’s sneaky-good defensive metrics (95th percentile in off-ball steals).
2. Houston flips Dillon Brooks’ expiring into a third-team deal for matching salary.
3. Victor Wembanyama personally guarantees he’ll recruit Luka Dončić to SA by 2025.

Fun Fact: Toronto’s Scottie Barnes has higher VORP (3.2) than any Heat/Rockets asset. Masai Ujiri stays lurking.

The Contingency Plans

Watch for sleeper teams exploiting this standoff:

• LA Clippers: Paul George + Terance Mann could work if Steve Ballmer ignores luxury tax implications (he will).
• Minnesota Timberwolves: Anthony Edwards + Rudy Gobert’s ghost? Even Karl-Anthony Towns’ 38% 3PT shooting can’t mask that defensive horror show.